Lo-Co carriers and DSA

[elmfield]

I was recently talking with a friend who is a well respected professional within the industry and is used as a consultant. We were talking about DSA. His views are worth repeating:

"Europe now has only two major lo-co carriers, easyJet and Ryanair both are consolidating and , increasingly, moving to the mainland where yields are highest. The lo-co market may well have reached saturation point. Lo-co is responsible for around 30% of the market with the remainder, largely, still in the hands of the "full-service, legacy" carriers.

Peel acquired LPL just as the lo-co boom started. Their experience there convinced them that was the future and DSA was built around the model. Others were similarly convinced and several new airports were built on the mainland, funded largely by the European Union and central governments. Amongst these new builds is Huesca-Pirineo, opened in 2007 with a 2,100 metre runway and owned by Aena the Spanish equivalent of the CAA. Their passenger stats are "interesting".

2007...1,386; 2008...3,982; 2009...6,228; 2010 ( to date) 6,334.

Clearly, these appalling figures make those of DSA look satisfactory but will DSA accept that the lo-co model might have been a mistake and will VAS be thinking of marketing the airport to more of the legacy carriers with the two major lo-co players having tested the water and perhaps found it wanting?"

Another forum chose to delete this.

[pug]

The low-cost boom was always going to be unsustainable. Many 'legacy' carriers wont even look at smaller regional airports these days either. EXT and BOH are good examples of small airports whose fortunes changed when low-cost carriers expanded there, but the majority of the passengers at these airports use only one main airline.

LPL would see a marked decline should either EZY or FR pull out, not that im suggesting that would happen.

[elmfield]

I can't see any Legacy carrier being too interested in DSA either and with easyJet departing(again) I wonder if Ryanair might expand their services?.jet2 would scarcely seem a likely candidate with their home base just up the road and that doesn't leave too many more . I suppose charter could expand as well as the air engineering side and, maybe, cargo but I wonder if VAS have paid their reputed £114 million to get a 65% share of LPL and a stake in DSA's property assets?

[kirmingtonuser]

There has recently been a considerable flow of news on topics which could possibly have an impact on DSA and its relationship with low-cost carriers.

1. A consortium which includes Peel (who already own 27%) has made a bid of £2.9bn for Intu, a property company who own several large well-known U.K. shopping centres.
Does this re-focus on retail properties signal a change in Peel's strategy, with a lower emphasis on funding for expansion in aviation?

2. Flybe have issued a profit warning citing softening consumer demand and higher fuel and currency costs.
Their annual report to 31/3/18 showed revenue per seat at £53.79 and cost per seat at £59.69. The cost included fuel amounting to £7.37. The fuel had been hedged at advantageous rates. This cost will rise when the hedges expire unless the oil price falls sharply. They have this week announced that 'we are reviewing further capacity and cost-saving measures'.
The DSA load factors have risen this year following the capacity reductions. Will the DSA services be profitable when the new-route incentives expire?

3. Stephen Gill, the Chief Executive of DSA and MME, has resigned in order to become Managing Director of BOH.
Does he see Bournemouth as having better prospects than Doncaster?

[pug]

As far as FlyBE is concerned, it may be a case that they strip back to their core of offering point to point domestic and city once the subsidies for ‘Operation Blackbird’ cease. They seem a bit directionless at present, and as we know from previous high profile failures, it’s a recipe for disaster.

BOH has a large wealthy population on its doorstep, it has the ability to handle larger aircraft than SOU presently.. Steve Gill has probably gone for the challenge.

DSA now has the road connections that for years have supposedly been lacking and holding the airport back. The proof now has to be the next few years. Meanwhile LBA continues to develop under new and experienced ownership.

[kirmingtonuser]

The Flybe annual report also contains a certain amount of information on incentive deals which low-cost airlines (if Flybe can be described as such) receive from airports. Project Blackbird arrangements are now referred to as 'Airport Partnership Agreements'.

The Chief Executive's Statement on page 15 states that they have entered into 'airport partnership deals with Doncaster Sheffield Airport, Cardiff Airport, Exeter Airport and Norwich Airport'.

The Financial Review on page 31 states that 'Other revenues, which primarily reflect airport partnership agreements, fell by 15.9% to £19.6m on the back of reduced losses being passed back to the airports as the route networks have matured'.

This would indicate that in the previous year (to 31/3/2017), they received £23.3m.

The airports are not listed in alphabetical order or number of passengers carried, so are presumably listed in order of size of subsidy which they pay to Flybe. Exeter and Norwich share an E195 for the summer sun routes (including sun in Exeter for Norwich passengers this year!).

[kirmingtonuser]

Further to the above post on 20th October, the takeover bid for Intu has today been withdrawn. Peel, with their 27.3% stake in Intu remain 'fully committed .....as a long term strategic shareholder'.