Annual traffic figures and projections

[kirmingtonuser]

Traffic totals for 2017 (2016) [2015] {2014}

Amsterdam 118,129 (118,292) [121,893] {118,143}
Aberdeen 22,515 (23,572) [30,145] {36,889}
Oil Rigs 19,684 (30,227) [46,631] {52,294}
Palma 10,205 (7,933) [8,262] {828}
Bourgas 6,083 (6,195) [5,115] {4,785}
Tenerife (TFS) 5,428 (2,413) [0] {0}
Aalborg/Billund 0 (2,588) [31] {0}
Jersey 2,236 (2,158) [2,385] {2,550}
Alicante 928 (1,130) [1,384] {1,714}
Special departure holidays and day trips 3,380 (4,588) [3,420]{4,257}
Football and Rugby League 1,535 (1,315) [798] {1,964}
Bae Systems charters 494 (231) [0] {0}
Other industrial charters 0 (54) [33] {46}
Southampton diversions 126 (169) [50] {128}
Dalaman 0 (0) [0] {5,482}
Enfidha 0 (0) [0] {4,677}
Copenhagen 0 (0) [0] {1,535}
Transit 446 (371) [917] {1,844}
Differences -298 (+414) [1,043] {2,037}

Total (terminal and transit) 190,891 (201,650) [222,107] {239,173}

Aberdeen is based on the figures produced by Humberside where possible and incorporates Durham Tees Valley, Newcastle and Norwich.

[mrmoose]

Feels like a very mediocre year again. Total pax down 5.6% -

Aberdeen (-4.6%) - feels like this route has finally "bottomed" numbers wise, although it will be interesting to see the impact of the via DTV on the attractiveness of the route.

Amsterdam (-0.2%) - not bad considering the impact of the DSA Flybe service. Fairly big falls in the earlier year have been counteracted by the final 6 months of the year.

Alicante (-17.9) - continued downward figures (-18.4%, -19.3% last 2 seasons compared to year before).

Bougras (-1.8%)

Jersey (+3.6%)

Palma (+28.6%) - mostly down to a larger aircraft operated by TUI, which seems to have been well filled most months.

[kirmingtonuser]

Yes, the third mediocre year in a row, largely due to the loss of Oil Rig and Aberdeen traffic, but not compensated for by leisure traffic.
2018 looks moderately promising. Without wishing to jeapodise any recovery, perhaps a projection would be appropriate. (The last projection on here was based on an official forecast for 2016 and the outcome fell a little short.)

There has been an indication that the Hornsea wind farm can be expected to generate 12,000 helicopter passengers for HUY over the eighteen months of the construction phase. This is due to begin fully in April, but apparently the first flight has already taken place.

The other major factor is the increase in the KLM capacity. What proportion will they sell?
The replacement of the Fokker 70 with the Embraer 175 produces about 24,500 extra seats per annum. The summer cancellation of 22 Sunday flights reduces this by 3,872. If there is a 6 days-per-week upgrade to an Embraer 190 throughout the year, this would add 7,344. This could result in a net total of 28,000 extra seats.
There are only two months to go on so far. There was poor December weather in Holland, so traffic in the two months was only up 5.35%.
However, loads were up by 10%. The projection below requires passenger numbers to rise by 8.3%.

Annual traffic projection 2018

Amsterdam 128,000
Aberdeen 24,000
Oil Rigs and Wind Farms 30,000
Palma 9,000
Bourgas 6,000
Tenerife 0
Jersey 2,000
Alicante 0
Special departure holidays and day trips 4,500
Football and Rugby League 500
Bae Systems charters 500
Southampton diversions 100
Transit 150

Total 204,750

[kirmingtonuser]

The annual passenger totals for 2018 are as follows :-

Amsterdam 127,090
Aberdeen 21,149
Differences 433
Oil rigs and wind farms 21,158
Palma 9,292
Burgas 6,127
Jersey 2,262
Special departure and day trips 3,155
Football and Rugby League 610
Bae Systems charters 292
Eastern Airways diversions (Southampton to Leeds/Bradford) 260
Transit 698

Total 192,526

The above Aberdeen figure will not agree with other published figures for the route as it only uses figures provided by Humberside and incorporates passengers flying to and from Durham Tees Valley, Newcastle, Leeds/Bradford and Norwich.

There were differences between the monthly totals and the reported detailed analysis (January 154, February 212, March 65). As almost all the differences occurred when the Aberdeen route was operating via Durham Tees Valley, it may possibly be appropriate to add them to the Aberdeen total.

[kirmingtonuser]

The CAA have now published the annual totals for 2018.

Terminal passengers were 191,828 (190,490)
Transit passengers 698 (446)
Total 192,526 (190,936)

The leading destinations were :-

Amsterdam 127,090 (118,129)
Oil Rigs 21,158 (19,684)

Aberdeen 19,742 (20,365)
Durham Tees Valley 1,359 (1,561)
Leeds Bradford 67 (66)
Norwich 28 (131)
Newcastle 10 (54)

Palma 9,292 (10,205)
Burgas 6,127 (6,083)
Jersey 2,263 (2,236)
Enontekio 836 (376)
Akureyri 669 (0)
Pajala Yllas 376 (378)
Ivalo 356 (0)
Perpignan 264 (281)
Warton 229 (384)
Funchal 226 (0)

[pug]

Basically a third of its peak value. Depressing reading. Also hear that Bristow are struggling, doesn’t bode well for Eastern.

Will there be an airport (to speak of) this time next year?

[mrmoose]

The only saving grace is that the figures, broadly are simular to last year, which hopefully mean the bottom has been reached. In terms of passenger numbers, we should see small growth next year, so I really hope so.

It is an uncertain time though - Its not yet clear what impact the new Virgin Connect operation will have on the Eastern franchise, and in turn, both the ABZ route, and the airport itself. I beleive the airport operates at a small profit though?

[kirmingtonuser]

You are right about the profitability. In fact, over the last 6 reported years, the airport has made net aggregate profits of £4.377m.

Looking at the current situation, there are several positives to be found.

In 2019, there should be modest growth in leisure, offshore and on the Aberdeen route. The Amsterdam route will depend on the wider state of the national economy.

The airport is making progress towards its aim of boosting the regional economy by providing business connectivity. An airport which primarily serves the leisure market is more likely to be of benefit to the Mediterranean tourist trade.

The management are to be congratulated on developing a business model which (in this era of low cost airlines) is capable of making a profit with relatively modest passenger numbers.

In current market conditions, if substantial leisure passenger numbers can only be achieved by buying them in at a loss, they are probably best avoided.

The days when the likes of Airtours advertised departures from Humberside on hoardings above the seats of London tube trains may have gone, but may return in the long term when current market conditions have eased.

[pug]

A shame then, that a prominent local councillor was seen to be posting on a news item about LBA’s road access improvements with the sentiments of focussing all growth on DSA. With local attitudes like that, it’s a wonder HUY even features as far as the local economy is concerned.

Not suggesting at all that HUY would it should sell out to low-cost. But the revenue lost in car parking alone (historically the airports biggest money spinner) does beg the question of its longevity as a full service airport. One would assume that the hypothetical attraction of Ryanair to service the typical Med destinations would create a renewed focus on Humberside as a gateway for both business and leisure travellers. The jewel in the crown always being the KLM service. Of course, the owners clearly have a strategy of sorts, however I would question its longevity based on the apparent uncertainty of the parent company(ies).

DSA clearly hasn’t helped, but I feel there is more to it than just local competition, there is still a fairly strong local market to be exploited amongst the consolidation at the traditional larger airports.

[humbermotor]

Just reading threads on Rotorheads, doesn't sound good re Bristows, stocks crashing.

[kirmingtonuser]

With the commencement of the seasonal Burgas route and the publication of three months' figures, it is possible to have a stab at a traffic figure projection.

Employment levels have been very buoyant nationally, but the economy does have problem areas which might have an effect on demand. As well as in aviation itself, there are, for example, difficulties in bricks and mortar retailers, chain restaurants, retailing property, steel, and vehicle manufacturing.


2019 Projection

Amsterdam 132,000
Oil Rigs and Wind Farms 25,000
Aberdeen 23,000
Burgas 11,000
Palma 9,000
Jersey 1,750
Special departures and day trips 4,000
Football and Rugby League 500
Bae Systems charters 300
Eastern Airways diversions 200
Transit 1,500

Total 208,250

[kirmingtonuser]

The analysis of the 12 monthly figures for 2019 is as follows:-

Amsterdam 134,946 (+6.2%)
Aberdeen 20,533 (-2.9%)
Oil Rigs and Wind Farms 20,530 (-3.0%)
Palma 8,988
Burgas 10,200
Jersey 1,648
Special Departure and Day Trips 4,098 (This includes the 64 passengers on the private charter to the British Virgin Islands)
Football and Rugby League 677
Bae Systems charters 65
Eastern Airways diversions 5
Transit 2,645
Differences 128

Total 204,463 (+6.2%)

The rolling annual totals were higher in the autumn, but have since turned down. Oil Rigs started to fall in September, Aberdeen in October and Amsterdam in November. The immediate prospects for the Amsterdam route do not look hugely bullish because Chinese destinations will be attracting fewer passengers.

[filton75]

The passenger figures for 2019 are very close to your previous projections. It is disappointing for the airport that AMS, ABZ and helicopter traffic have all seen falls in recent months. Hopefully, wind farm traffic may pick up this year, but I can't see where any other growth will come from. There don't seem to have been many biz movements recently, either - has there been a reduction in business for Weston?

[kirmingtonuser]

The annual C.A.A. totals for 2019 are as follows:-

Terminal 201,818 (191,828 +5%)
Transit 2,645 (698)
Total 204,463 (192,526 +6%)

Amsterdam 134,946 (127,090 +6%)

Aberdeen 19,197 (19,742)
Newcastle 82 (10)
Norwich scheduled 233 (28)
Teesside 1,041 (1,359)
Total 20,552 (21,139 - 3%)

Oil Rigs 20,530 (21,158 -3%)
Burgas 10,200 (6,127 +66%)
Palma 8,988 (9,292 -3%)
Jersey 1,648 (2,263 -27%)
Enontekio 1,083 (836 +30%)
Akureyri 1,072 (669 +60%)
Bergamo 704 (0)
Pajala Yllas 372 (376 -1%)
Ivalo 338 (356 -5%)
Cardiff 206 (114)
Bristol 175 (113)
Berlin (Tegel) 147 (0)
Perpignan 140 (264)

Lossiemouth 1 (0)
Marham 12 (63)
Southampton 0 (123)
Stansted 67 (0)
Warton  51 (229)
Norwich 32 (0)
Vienna 0 (92)
Dubrovnik 78 (92)
Bonn (Hangalar) 86 (0)  This looks odd because the runway is only 800 metres long.
Venice 86 (168)
Rotterdam 0 (71)
Funchal 0 (226)
Seville 0 (133)
Keflavik 0 (93)
Budapest 68 (92)
Halifax International 32 (0)
Bermuda 32 (0)

[kirmingtonuser]

The annual totals of the 12 month's figures for 2020 are as follows:-

Amsterdam 29,099
Aberdeen 7,551
Oil Rigs and Wind Farms 8,339
Special departure and day trip charters 926
Football and Rugby League charters 279
Eastern Airways diversions 52
Bae Systems charters 6
Other industrial charters 698

Transit 411
Difference 10

Total 47,371