Post by expressflight on Dec 26, 2010 10:30:44 GMT
It's that time of year again when I offer a few thoughts as to the prospects for passenger services at SEN in the coming 12 months.
A year ago I think we all expected either that the runway extension would now be under construction with a realistic date for its opening or that it would be a dead duck by virtue of being refused planning consent by SBC or subsequently having fallen foul of a legal challenge by SAEN. The truth, of course, is that the former did not happen while the latter is still a possibility. It certainly means that SEN will have to make do with the existing runway for most, if not all, of 2011. Not only that, but the improvements to the runway in terms of lighting and ILS etc. which are being demanded by potential airline operators will have to be done during the next 12 months and could result in operational difficulties for any airline commencing services during part of that time. We would also have expected the train station would be up and running by now but SEN cannot be criticised for awaiting the commencement of scheduled services being incurring the substantial cost of doing so. The new control tower will be commissioned in February and will help give credibility to SEN in operators' eyes.
A year ago I was not as involved in the development of new services at SEN as I now am and, ironically, that means that as I know more of what is a happening behind the scenes I have to be a little more careful in what I say.
What is in the public domain is that Stobart have made a financial investment in Aer Arann as a result of the latter's financial problems in the late summer and this commits the airline to commencing services from SEN in 2011. Their interest in doing so goes back several years so they are not being dragged screaming to the party and they no doubt already had certain routes in mind. Currently it is anticipated that the current Luton-Galway and Luton-Waterford services will transfer to SEN on 28 March 2011. If that plan is cast in stone an announcement will need to be made within the next couple of weeks to allow time for marketing and promotion to take place: we shall have to wait and see if this happens. These flights would be flown on a W pattern as they currently are so no additional SEN-originating services will accompany this. Indeed, it is not expected that Aer Arann will have any spare aircraft to base at SEN until June at the earliest and only at that time can new services commence. If all goes well I would expect to see at least four routes launched and these will probably be to French destinations. If all that happens it will indeed be quite a step forward and provide a solid basis for the relaunch of SEN as an airport providing substantial scheduled services again at long last.
The fly in the ointment to the above is any reservations Aer Arann may have as to the disruption that the development programme may cause to runway availability and its approach aids. Will the ILS be fully reinstated in March or will that have to await the rejection of the Judicial Review process? - this possibily coming about as early as January (if the Judge refuses to allow the application to go to a full hearing) or as late as July perhaps if not. I feel that the ILS will have to be reinstated earlier rather than later if Aer Arann are to feel comfortable with SEN operations.
Flybe will again operate their summer Saturday JER service but I would not anticipate any additional routes from them for 2011. Likewise I would not expect any other existing airlines to commence services from SEN in 2011 for the operational reasons mentioned above, unless SEN revises its apparent plans for the current runway improvements. The name of Eastern Airways seems to crop up from time to time so perhaps an announcement from them cannot be entirely ruled out before the year's end.
That really completes my thoughts on the information which is available more or less in the public domain but there is the potential for a new player to enter the arena during 2011. If this comes about it would result in perhaps another five routes being offered from Spring 2011, using aircraft which can happliy operate from SEN's current runway. As to the likelihood of this coming about, it rests in the hands of the money men and certainly the past 12 months has not been a happy time to be financing an airline. All I can say is that the business plan is sound and stands a good chance of being commercially successful if the substantial hurdles in reaching that point can be overcome. What it does show, however, is that SEN is being taken seriously as a London destination and bodes well for the medium-term future in any event.
Autumn 2011 should see the completion and opening of the new passenger terminal and this will be the important part of the jigsaw which enables the train station to boost SEN's potential, by which time it should be known whether an extended runway will be available for 2012 or just the existing distances albeit with much improved approach aids and lower minima.
To sum up, it has been a disappointing and frustrating 2010 but confidence seems to remain high within SEN's management and owners and Stobart have shown their commitment by making the sort of financial investment never before seen at SEN and they are to be congratulated on that.
The opinions of other forum members on the subject and the above thoughts will be interesting to hear.
A year ago I think we all expected either that the runway extension would now be under construction with a realistic date for its opening or that it would be a dead duck by virtue of being refused planning consent by SBC or subsequently having fallen foul of a legal challenge by SAEN. The truth, of course, is that the former did not happen while the latter is still a possibility. It certainly means that SEN will have to make do with the existing runway for most, if not all, of 2011. Not only that, but the improvements to the runway in terms of lighting and ILS etc. which are being demanded by potential airline operators will have to be done during the next 12 months and could result in operational difficulties for any airline commencing services during part of that time. We would also have expected the train station would be up and running by now but SEN cannot be criticised for awaiting the commencement of scheduled services being incurring the substantial cost of doing so. The new control tower will be commissioned in February and will help give credibility to SEN in operators' eyes.
A year ago I was not as involved in the development of new services at SEN as I now am and, ironically, that means that as I know more of what is a happening behind the scenes I have to be a little more careful in what I say.
What is in the public domain is that Stobart have made a financial investment in Aer Arann as a result of the latter's financial problems in the late summer and this commits the airline to commencing services from SEN in 2011. Their interest in doing so goes back several years so they are not being dragged screaming to the party and they no doubt already had certain routes in mind. Currently it is anticipated that the current Luton-Galway and Luton-Waterford services will transfer to SEN on 28 March 2011. If that plan is cast in stone an announcement will need to be made within the next couple of weeks to allow time for marketing and promotion to take place: we shall have to wait and see if this happens. These flights would be flown on a W pattern as they currently are so no additional SEN-originating services will accompany this. Indeed, it is not expected that Aer Arann will have any spare aircraft to base at SEN until June at the earliest and only at that time can new services commence. If all goes well I would expect to see at least four routes launched and these will probably be to French destinations. If all that happens it will indeed be quite a step forward and provide a solid basis for the relaunch of SEN as an airport providing substantial scheduled services again at long last.
The fly in the ointment to the above is any reservations Aer Arann may have as to the disruption that the development programme may cause to runway availability and its approach aids. Will the ILS be fully reinstated in March or will that have to await the rejection of the Judicial Review process? - this possibily coming about as early as January (if the Judge refuses to allow the application to go to a full hearing) or as late as July perhaps if not. I feel that the ILS will have to be reinstated earlier rather than later if Aer Arann are to feel comfortable with SEN operations.
Flybe will again operate their summer Saturday JER service but I would not anticipate any additional routes from them for 2011. Likewise I would not expect any other existing airlines to commence services from SEN in 2011 for the operational reasons mentioned above, unless SEN revises its apparent plans for the current runway improvements. The name of Eastern Airways seems to crop up from time to time so perhaps an announcement from them cannot be entirely ruled out before the year's end.
That really completes my thoughts on the information which is available more or less in the public domain but there is the potential for a new player to enter the arena during 2011. If this comes about it would result in perhaps another five routes being offered from Spring 2011, using aircraft which can happliy operate from SEN's current runway. As to the likelihood of this coming about, it rests in the hands of the money men and certainly the past 12 months has not been a happy time to be financing an airline. All I can say is that the business plan is sound and stands a good chance of being commercially successful if the substantial hurdles in reaching that point can be overcome. What it does show, however, is that SEN is being taken seriously as a London destination and bodes well for the medium-term future in any event.
Autumn 2011 should see the completion and opening of the new passenger terminal and this will be the important part of the jigsaw which enables the train station to boost SEN's potential, by which time it should be known whether an extended runway will be available for 2012 or just the existing distances albeit with much improved approach aids and lower minima.
To sum up, it has been a disappointing and frustrating 2010 but confidence seems to remain high within SEN's management and owners and Stobart have shown their commitment by making the sort of financial investment never before seen at SEN and they are to be congratulated on that.
The opinions of other forum members on the subject and the above thoughts will be interesting to hear.
