Prospects for 2010

[expressflight]

Here are my thoughts as to what 2010 might bring as far as passenger services are concerned and I would be pleased to know what others think.

2009 marked the first year that SEN has not had a resident airline (following the closure of Flightline), the loss of the Ford CGN route and the JER service reverting to Summer Saturdays only after a rather feeble attempt in 2008 to introduce an additional Wednesday flight. I don't recall a single passenger charter during the whole year, other than the local flights in the DC3 and Rapide. The only bright spot was that LCY diversions continued to offer a glimpse of the sort of activity the future could hold. All in all a very disappointing year; although perhaps that is not surprising in light of the downturn in the economy which will have made all airlines nervous of starting new routes.

So what are the prospects for 2010? Let me say firstly that I have no information on any definite plans by any airline, although I do detect a certain cautious optimism that there may be tentative plans which are yet to be firmed up. It is certainly true that Stobarts reviewed the station project earlier this year and concluded that it should proceed. There must have been a basis for reaching this conclusion and it has long been the airport's belief that the station will be key to attracting airline operators to SEN. I must reluctantly say that I am a little surprised that a station some 400 metres from the existing terminal is felt to offer much greater appeal than does the existing station at Rochford, as I assume a bus link will be required as it is a considerable distance to walk. A station attached to the planned new terminal would/will be a completely different matter, as time from aircraft to platform could be as little as 5 minutes. I can only assume that an airline or two has suggested that even with the existing terminal in use, the psychological/marketing advantage of SEN having a dedicated rail station will be the clincher to commencing services. Let's hope so at least.

So let's have a look at how feasible this sounds when considering real route possibilities.

To take the very latest 'rumour' doing the rounds, how about the planned Aer Arann/Aer Lingus tie-up which 'could' involve up to seven ATR's being DUB-based for Ireland-UK operations commencing in Spring. Aer Arann have certainly expressed an interest in SEN and discussions have taken place over the past couple of years so, theoretically, this new operation could offer SEN an opportunity. The right route, the right aircraft and the participation of an operator with SEN in mind for potential services, so it all looks feasible on paper, but even as I write this it all sounds so unlikely somehow. Could we really see services into SEN by the Irish flag carrier? The main problem I see is that SEN's advantage of having access to the Greater London/Essex market is also, ironically, its greatest disadvantage. Aer Lingus already operate substantially from LGW with frequent daily services to DUB, so would they want to risk diluting that market with a twice-daily DUB-SEN service? Aer Arann on their own is a different matter as they do not serve DUB from the London area so a DUB-SEN could appeal to them.

Perhaps a more realistic prospect is a route from a Continental city with AF/KLM/Cityjet as the operator. AMS-SEN could without doubt support at least a twice-daily service and the time saving advantages might be sufficient for the airline to think it worthwhile. Although it would compete with their LCY services, a SEN service would be aimed at the leisure market to a greater extent, with lower fares, so would be complementary rather than competitive to the LCY route. I would see this route as having the greater chance of being initiated sometime in 2010.

Flybe will just be offering the JER Summer service and I don't see them as jumping in with any other routes and we can discount the prospects of a CAX-SEN services for the whole of 2010 I would guess due to the ongoing legal challenge to the CAX planning consent.

The other possibility is, of course, the restarting of the Ford CGN service in the Spring. This has been hinted at in certain quarters and they have retained the RJ100 so there must be a chance of it happening, but it will be political machinations within Fords which will decide that issue.

So, will 2010 see any new passenger services at SEN? My own view is that the chances are perhaps 60 to 40 against, with Fords being the wild card, and an AMS-SEN service having the greatest chance of happening.

Probably, I shall look back at this thread in 12 months' time and cringe at the idiocy of my predictions - and if it's because SEN is processing 1,500 pax per day I shall at least be a happy idiot. I shall certainly be interested to hear what other Forum members think may happen.

[devonian]

Well, my two-pennyworth is based entirely on uninformed guesswork. I don't think there will be any new scheduled services in 2010, due partly to the recession and partly due to insufficient attractiveness of the SEN package. Development will depend upon the runway extension, I believe, and that must be in some doubt especially with a likely change of government in May. However, if the extended runway opens in 2011 I believe the prospects will be much brighter. I think FlyBE would be interested in developing a base with a network of schedules. However, I also have a strange inkling that easyjet would also be interested - the references to A319s in the Airport's publicity may have some foundation. There is a viable, self-sustaining market for low-cost schedules from SE Essex. The Olympics might just provide the push that SEN needs.

I agree that the new passenger terminal is needed before the railway station bears fruit - I think that a new terminal and station could attract traffic without a runway extension and then Aer Arran and Manx2 among others may be interested.

Maybe some foreign low-cost operators might be attracted to SEN as an inbound airport for London?

An interesting couple of years lies ahead anyway........

Happy New Year everyone!

[roche]

I have lived close to the airport for many years and can’t remember a year where there have been so few commercial movements, even the LCY diversions have been only around 50% of what they were in 2008.
As we move towards 2010, there are 2 crucial things which I’m quite surprised you didn’t mention EF. One is obviously the planning decision due in January regarding the runway extension and the other is the 2012 Olympics which are now only 2 and a half years away.
Obviously this is all speculation, but I would have thought that if planning permission for the runway extension is granted (and it isn’t called in), this would encourage an airline like Flybe to start some services, possibly even next year using the Q400, with a view to building up their presence for when they can use their E195 aircraft once the runway is extended. As for Aer Arran, don’t they currently use Luton ? Presumably they wouldn’t serve both Luton and SEN, so they would have to pull out of Luton. I did read in one of the planning documents that if the runway at SEN is extended, there’s a possibility that an airline would move its operations from another London airport to SEN and I’m guessing that the airline is Aer Arran, as I can’t think who else it could be. So maybe planning approval for the runway extension plus the new station could be the catalyst for airlines to start up one or two routes next year with a view to building up their services for when the new terminal and runway extension are available?
I don’t know how far airlines plan ahead, but for something as significant as the Olympic Games, surely they are already looking at the airports with spare capacity and ease of access to the Olympic facilities, given that 2012 should be a ‘bumper’ year for them. If that is the case, wouldn’t it make sense to start up some services sooner rather than later to ensure they are established at the airport? The Olympics will surely result in an increase passenger levels from early 2012 which is only 2 years away and given that it would probably take several months from the time of any announcement to actually getting services up and running, we’re probably talking only around 18 months at best. If airlines are serious about using SEN, with or without a runway extension, I would expect some announcements sometime next year.
In addition, I cannot imagine a company like Stobart spending 12 million pounds on a railway station in the hope it may attract some business – surely they already have a commitment from at least 1 airline.
As for the Ford flights, my brother-in-law works for Ford and is desperate for the flights from SEN to restart. He needs to go to Cologne on a regular basis and as he can’t fit in a full day using the scheduled flights from Stansted, he regularly has to book into a hotel and return the next day which means he loses at least a half days work. Currently, there are no rumours circulating within Ford regarding the service restarting, although those who travel to Cologne frequently continue to make senior management aware of how unsatisfactory the current arrangements are.
I’m certainly more optimistic for 2010 than both Expressflight and Devonian, although I have to say, my track record on predictions is not great! Let’s hope I’m right for once.
I also wish everyone a happy and prosperous 2010.

[expressflight]

Roche,
I specifically avoided speculating as to what could happen if the runway extension is granted planning consent simply because there is so much uncertainty surrounding the outcome. I think the time to seriously discuss SEN's prospects with approval for an extended runway will be in six months time when things are clearer. Likewise, the Olympics situation.
I don't see the fact that Aer Arann operate two routes into LTN automatically precludes them initiating services into SEN. After all, they also operate into LCY from IOM. But the only reason I thought it all possible that we could see their ATRs here in 2010 is the reported link up with Aer Lingus; not Aer Arann in their own right.
If, as you suggest, the airport have already had a commitment from an airline in order to have pushed ahead with the station construction (and that does make sense), I would hope that 2010 would see the commencement of such services rather than it being delayed to 2011 when the hoped-for runway construction would, at some point, cause temporary problems in terms of declared distances and unavailability of ILS etc..

[devonian]

So, as this is the time of year for reflection and prediction, what do you think the prospects for SEN are if the runway is extended, Expressflight......?

[expressflight]

IF the runway is extended, and that's still a big IF, I believe that SEN's prospects will be completely transformed.
I would expect Easyjet to commence operations in Spring 2012 and that a number of routes would be inaugurated by other airlines at the same time to take advantage of the Olympic traffic.
Flybe would be one of the first - perhaps in Autumn 2011 plus at least one European carrier making SEN a London destination. Charters would also operate from SEN for Summer 2012 to IT holiday destinations and to SEN from Europe for the Olympics.
I would expect the 'Olympics factor' to be the catalyst that would establish SEN as a true London destination/point of origin.
The above is EXACTLY why I don't want to think that far ahead as the prospects are so enticing that the disappointment will be huge if it doesn't happen.
And my honest opinion as to whether or not it will happen? I have to say I'm doubtful of it happening in time for the Olympics as there is likely to be some form of legal challenge to any planning consent granted which will make that necessary Autumn 2011 deadline impossible to meet. We'll just have to hope for the best.

[Thames Gateway]

The news on another forum that Flybe will be starting a Manston-Edinburgh daily service surely does not bode well for Southend. Remember the flybe statements from a few years ago about intentions from Southend?

With the RBS link at Southend and proximity to the city of London, can't help think such a service would do a lot better from Southend!

[devonian]

Manston to Edinburgh doesn't sound like a winner to me. I agree that Southend would be a much more suitable southern terminal. I hope flyBE aren't losing the plot.

Brings back memories of Channel's Scottish Flyer schedules..... Also of Manston - I only ever visited Manston once, in 1968. Invicta's Vikings were all lined up together, forming a very striking image which has stayed with me down the long years since then.......

[Humberside]

I doubt though expansion at Manston will affect the chances of Flybe expansion at Southend

[expressflight]

I think the fact that Flybe have this week announced new services MAN-BOH and EDI-MSE is quite encouraging for SEN. To say that EDI-MSE will harm prospects for SEN makes no sense as the catchment areas simply don't overlap. It certainly could be said that the BOH-MAN and SOU-MAN catchments do overlap yet Flybe is happy to offer both, albeit only once daily from BOH.
In truth I would have been disappointed if Flybe had announced a SEN-EDI service with the same timings as that for MSE: just a once daily service with a departure time of 12:45. That's no good for business travellers who require a twice daily early and late. Flybe could well have SEN in mind for this autumn once the train station is open as that would give the maximum potential for any route to succeed. The very fact that they are still seeking out new routes and not hunkering down is an encouraging sign in my view.
How's the station construction going by the way?

[atl98]

MSE is no threat to SEN, regrettably it's history shows the only threat is to the airlines who have tried to operate from it, usually with unhappy results.
The station is coming along fast with the platform levels appearing to be in place and some of the structural framework also seems to be onsite. The site offices for Readie who are contracted to build the new tower are in place and the tower site has been fenced off. The word is that the steel work will be inplace in March with the exterior cladding in April.
Hopefully by then there should be a favourable government decision on the runway and
we can expect some announcements from airlines.

[roche]

Given that BMI Regional wrote in to the council to support the runway extension - there was no mention that FlyBe had done the same - I'm quite surprised there's been no discussion/speculation as to their intentions towards SEN.

[expressflight]

I haven't mentioned BMI Regional on this thread because its title is 'Prospects for 2010' and I don't see any prospect of them starting SEN operations this year.
As Roche has brought them into the discussion, I would just say that I haven't heard their name mentioned anywhere else other than in the planning document so to my mind it's interesting but no more than that.
Lufthansa has expressed its likely intention of disposing of BMI Regional as it does not fit their plan for BMI itself to provide feed for LH international services. Any SEN aspirations that they may have could well cease under new ownership so we're well into the area of speculation there. It's something to keep an eye on, but only that in my view.
My thanks to atl98 for the station update by the way.

[Humberside]

All the signs are currently that bmi regional is being kept for now. They are operating NCL/BRS-Brussels for Brussels Airlines, and increasing their own EMA-BRU flights

Though I'm not sure where SEN could fit into either bmi, Lufthansa or Brussels Airlines plans. Can't see SEN-BRU working, and FRA has slot issues. SEN-DUS? Possible, but unlikley I would have thought. Domestic flights from SEN? The ERJ probably isn't the best aircraft for it

I'm rather surprised bmi regional actually sent that letter of support because I can't see them using SEN

[Thames Gateway]

I hear that a marketing manager has now been appointed and has started at the airport -a good move with a rebound in aviationmarkets surely just around the corner. Lets all hope for some early results from this.