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Post by pug on Jan 19, 2023 13:14:01 GMT
Just done some crude cig packet catchment area analysis.
It would appear that the core catchment area (core being the area in which Humberside is the closest airport) when taking into consideration the populations of Hull, East Yorkshire, North & North East Lincolnshire, East & West Lindsey, Lincoln and Doncaster Metro Area gives a figure of just short of 1.6 million people. With the exception of some parts of East Yorkshire (mainly the less populated parts) it would seem that all of those people live well within an hours car journey to Humberside. All of the main population centres are within 45 minutes. When taking the entire Lincolnshire population into consideration that figure rises to 2 million. Obviously the more southerly parts can easily reach STN and EMA.
I’m not sure how well this compares to elsewhere. Obviously theoretical catchment areas are problematic. Manchesters theoretical catchment area is smaller than it actually is, as it has the large scale operation that appeals to a wider audience, whereas Doncaster’s was quite large on paper but competitor airports had to be factored in which reduced it significantly.
I’m pretty confident that Humberside is in a better position than Teesside and perhaps Norwich when it comes to access to people. LBA is quite a distance from Hull, Grimsby, Scunthorpe and Lincoln, as is East Midlands. Whereas for Teesside LBA and NCL are fairly easy to teach. Same goes for Doncaster where its largest conurbation can access MAN and EMA quite easily, although traditionally Humberside was often first choice for Doncaster passengers prior to DSA opening. Norwich also isn’t a huge trek from STN, though I accept the roads aren’t the best.
With all this in mind, and assuming DSA remains closed, does anyone agree that Humberside is actually in a fairly good location to capitalise on its remoteness relative to competing airports? I appreciate markets rely on high disposable incomes and support from industry/business. However I am confident that those sort of numbers could very easily support a much increased offering from the like of TUI or even Ryanair given the competition at Doncaster is no more.
Just thought it might be an interesting point of discussion.
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Post by flyer on Jan 19, 2023 14:35:31 GMT
Just done some crude cig packet catchment area analysis. It would appear that the core catchment area (core being the area in which Humberside is the closest airport) when taking into consideration the populations of Hull, East Yorkshire, North & North East Lincolnshire, East & West Lindsey, Lincoln and Doncaster Metro Area gives a figure of just short of 1.6 million people. With the exception of some parts of East Yorkshire (mainly the less populated parts) it would seem that all of those people live well within an hours car journey to Humberside. All of the main population centres are within 45 minutes. When taking the entire Lincolnshire population into consideration that figure rises to 2 million. Obviously the more southerly parts can easily reach STN and EMA. I’m not sure how well this compares to elsewhere. Obviously theoretical catchment areas are problematic. Manchesters theoretical catchment area is smaller than it actually is, as it has the large scale operation that appeals to a wider audience, whereas Doncaster’s was quite large on paper but competitor airports had to be factored in which reduced it significantly. I’m pretty confident that Humberside is in a better position than Teesside and perhaps Norwich when it comes to access to people. LBA is quite a distance from Hull, Grimsby, Scunthorpe and Lincoln, as is East Midlands. Whereas for Teesside LBA and NCL are fairly easy to teach. Same goes for Doncaster where its largest conurbation can access MAN and EMA quite easily, although traditionally Humberside was often first choice for Doncaster passengers prior to DSA opening. Norwich also isn’t a huge trek from STN, though I accept the roads aren’t the best. With all this in mind, and assuming DSA remains closed, does anyone agree that Humberside is actually in a fairly good location to capitalise on its remoteness relative to competing airports? I appreciate markets rely on high disposable incomes and support from industry/business. However I am confident that those sort of numbers could very easily support a much increased offering from the like of TUI or even Ryanair given the competition at Doncaster is no more. Just thought it might be an interesting point of discussion. Yes, evidenced by what was happening at HUY before DSA opened. Maybe some investment decisions need to be taken by the owners but the market is there to be re- developed if they choose to do so. Therein lies the unknown. What are the " things sometimes beyond our control" the Airport marketing team's e mail referred to? Facilities? Charges? All potential airlines focused on maximising at current locations during post COVID build- up?
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Post by pug on Jan 19, 2023 14:51:35 GMT
Just done some crude cig packet catchment area analysis. It would appear that the core catchment area (core being the area in which Humberside is the closest airport) when taking into consideration the populations of Hull, East Yorkshire, North & North East Lincolnshire, East & West Lindsey, Lincoln and Doncaster Metro Area gives a figure of just short of 1.6 million people. With the exception of some parts of East Yorkshire (mainly the less populated parts) it would seem that all of those people live well within an hours car journey to Humberside. All of the main population centres are within 45 minutes. When taking the entire Lincolnshire population into consideration that figure rises to 2 million. Obviously the more southerly parts can easily reach STN and EMA. I’m not sure how well this compares to elsewhere. Obviously theoretical catchment areas are problematic. Manchesters theoretical catchment area is smaller than it actually is, as it has the large scale operation that appeals to a wider audience, whereas Doncaster’s was quite large on paper but competitor airports had to be factored in which reduced it significantly. I’m pretty confident that Humberside is in a better position than Teesside and perhaps Norwich when it comes to access to people. LBA is quite a distance from Hull, Grimsby, Scunthorpe and Lincoln, as is East Midlands. Whereas for Teesside LBA and NCL are fairly easy to teach. Same goes for Doncaster where its largest conurbation can access MAN and EMA quite easily, although traditionally Humberside was often first choice for Doncaster passengers prior to DSA opening. Norwich also isn’t a huge trek from STN, though I accept the roads aren’t the best. With all this in mind, and assuming DSA remains closed, does anyone agree that Humberside is actually in a fairly good location to capitalise on its remoteness relative to competing airports? I appreciate markets rely on high disposable incomes and support from industry/business. However I am confident that those sort of numbers could very easily support a much increased offering from the like of TUI or even Ryanair given the competition at Doncaster is no more. Just thought it might be an interesting point of discussion. Yes, evidenced by what was happening at HUY before DSA opened. Maybe some investment decisions need to be taken by the owners but the market is there to be re- developed if they choose to do so. Therein lies the unknown. What are the " things sometimes beyond our control" the Airport marketing team's e mail referred to? Facilities? Charges? All potential airlines focused on maximising at current locations during post COVID build- up? Not sure but if I was to guess I’d say a mixture of all three. I still believe the main sticking point is what is actually happening with DSA, certainly one thing that’s outside of their control. Like I’ve said for a while now, whilst there is even the slightest chance of it reopening it would be risky making any investment required to make HUY a viable proposition once more. If DSA doesn’t reopen then it may make the job of attracting operators much easier. Ryanair have done well out of Humberside perviously and this was in direct competition with an airport only 30 miles away, no reason to believe they wouldn’t do even better with that competition completely removed.
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Post by flyer on Jan 19, 2023 15:49:25 GMT
Yes, evidenced by what was happening at HUY before DSA opened. Maybe some investment decisions need to be taken by the owners but the market is there to be re- developed if they choose to do so. Therein lies the unknown. What are the " things sometimes beyond our control" the Airport marketing team's e mail referred to? Facilities? Charges? All potential airlines focused on maximising at current locations during post COVID build- up? Not sure but if I was to guess I’d say a mixture of all three. I still believe the main sticking point is what is actually happening with DSA, certainly one thing that’s outside of their control. Like I’ve said for a while now, whilst there is even the slightest chance of it reopening it would be risky making any investment required to make HUY a viable proposition once more. If DSA doesn’t reopen then it may make the job of attracting operators much easier. Ryanair have done well out of Humberside perviously and this was in direct competition with an airport only 30 miles away, no reason to believe they wouldn’t do even better with that competition completely removed. The DSA saga still ongoing as you say. If no agreement to sell or lease happens fairly soon the next crunch date looks like 17th February when bids to manage the airspace must be in. That is unless the Mayor can persuade the CAA to hold fire - she asked for a meeting with them. I can't help thinking that reviving DSA is now a lost, expensive and financially risky cause and it's time for the local authority to start to focus on creating a new future for this well placed, valuable piece of land. There must be voices saying this within both local authorities and these voices will surely get louder as the saga drags on.
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Post by kirmingtonuser on Jan 19, 2023 17:38:54 GMT
Catchment area can also vary depending on the type of routes on offer. Humberside's core strengths over the years have been Scandinavia and high quality hub connections. For these services, the catchment area is larger than it is for leisure services. To the North and West, the limit for the KLM catchment area is governed by the travelling time to MME and LBA. To the south, the potential is greater because EMA pulls well below its weight in these fields. As Scandinavia is a niche destination, the catchment area will be even wider than the KLM one.
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Post by pug on Jan 19, 2023 17:45:36 GMT
Not sure but if I was to guess I’d say a mixture of all three. I still believe the main sticking point is what is actually happening with DSA, certainly one thing that’s outside of their control. Like I’ve said for a while now, whilst there is even the slightest chance of it reopening it would be risky making any investment required to make HUY a viable proposition once more. If DSA doesn’t reopen then it may make the job of attracting operators much easier. Ryanair have done well out of Humberside perviously and this was in direct competition with an airport only 30 miles away, no reason to believe they wouldn’t do even better with that competition completely removed. The DSA saga still ongoing as you say. If no agreement to sell or lease happens fairly soon the next crunch date looks like 17th February when bids to manage the airspace must be in. That is unless the Mayor can persuade the CAA to hold fire - she asked for a meeting with them. I can't help thinking that reviving DSA is now a lost, expensive and financially risky cause and it's time for the local authority to start to focus on creating a new future for this well placed, valuable piece of land. There must be voices saying this within both local authorities and these voices will surely get louder as the saga drags on. Ros Jones claims to have received unanimous support from the whole council to pursue any means to reopen DSA. So she clearly has a mandate to do so even if there is kick back from within. You must not forget that the seeds sewn by Peel 20 odd years ago about long runway, rivalling Manchester etc have never gone away, it’s why there is so much suspicion over the operating practices of Peel as ‘the airport should be really busy by now, surely, so Peel must have priced the airlines out/mismanaged the place. They only wanted it to build houses on’ which permeates into the mind of the councillors who also drank the Kool Aid. So I don’t think this is over by any stretch and line you say, with the decision on the airspace imminent within the next few weeks, there will be some urgency to get something done now. So I do think that unless there really is a huge sticking point in any leasehold agreement that the councils legal team refuse to agree to, then we could see the baby steps of the airport reopening very soon. Whether it will come to fruition is another matter and depends entirely on airline buy in. Bringing matters back on topic, it could be another year before anything is more certain. With that in mind, I do think Humberside might be watching closely and once DSA fate is sealed (and only then!) will we maybe see tentative steps to invest in the possibility of getting new routes lost over the last 17 years. It can do this far more sustainably than DSA ever could.
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Post by kirmingtonuser on Feb 6, 2023 11:56:24 GMT
Hopefully HUY will in due course capitalise on its catchment area to increase leisure traffic as the re-opening of DSA becomes less likely.
In the meantime it is positive to have new thinner routes being introduced by Eastern Airways.
Esbjerg Airport have re-drafted their website and are suggesting an even wider catchment area for Humberside Airport for the purpose of attending Premier League football matches.
'Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool are within driving distance from Humberside Airport so there is the opportunity to experience the best English clubs when they fight for the championship'.
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Post by pug on Feb 6, 2023 13:06:21 GMT
Hopefully HUY will in due course capitalise on its catchment area to increase leisure traffic as the re-opening of DSA becomes less likely. In the meantime it is positive to have new thinner routes being introduced by Eastern Airways. Esbjerg Airport have re-drafted their website and are suggesting an even wider catchment area for Humberside Airport for the purpose of attending Premier League football matches. 'Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool are within driving distance from Humberside Airport so there is the opportunity to experience the best English clubs when they fight for the championship'. Be interesting to see how well the route is doing load-wise. I’m hoping it’s getting the industry support that it started for as that will make it or break it. Advertising football teams in the wider area seems to be clutching at straws a fair bit.
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Post by mrmoose on Feb 6, 2023 20:05:52 GMT
A dummy booking on Easterns website, and getting as far as the seat plan, suggests 13 are booked on Wednesday to Esbjerg, and 12 on Fridays into Humberside. Would suggest its not doing bad if that's the case (Assuming seats are not blocked out for any other reason!) December stats should give us an indication fairly soon!
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