CAA Provisional Statistics - May 2023

[mrmoose]

Passengers - 12349 (2021: 8632) +43%

Aberdeen - 1022 (1058 -3%)
Amsterdam - 7311 (4331 +68%)
Bougras - 184 (196 -6%)
Esjberg - 235 (0)
Jersey - 274 (155 +76%)
Newquay - 325 (361 -105)
Oil Rigs - 1309 (903 +45%)
Palma - 1654 (1532 +8%)

35 unaccounted for

Initial thoughts:
Aberdeen - Steady as she goes? 18.9 per flight, assuming no cancellations (65% LF)
Amsterdam - Growth on Aprils 6880. Wouldn't like to guess at passengers per flight given the unsettled nature of the schedule in May!
Bougras - Considering there was only 1 rotation on 29th May - if the outbound was a positioning flight only, then we have a 102% LF - so either full with some infants, or a handful were booked as scheduled on the inbound
Esjberg - A drop on Aprils 286. Not sure if there were any cancellations or unscheduled flights on Bank Holidays
Jersey - Average load of 54.8 as first inbound was not sold, I understand.
Newquay - Assuming no cancellations, 12.5 per flight, exactly the same as April, and LF of 43%
Palma - 183.8 per flight, assuming first inbound was empty, LF of 97.2%. There were the same number of flights in May 22 and we carried 1532, which equates to 170.2 per flight, or 90% LF - so, not suprisingly - an increase

[pug]

The fact that Palma is selling so well is incentive enough to add more, perhaps another Palma to allow for 10 night holidays and a Tenerife and Antalya would all I’m sure sell very well.

As far as the traditionally popular destinations like Malaga and Alicante, can’t ever see them returning unless the airport are open to discussions with Ryanair.

Be good to see the July stats when they eventually arrive now that KLM seem to have finally upped their frequencies.

[kirmingtonuser]

There were 127 Amsterdam flights after cancellations and the average load was 57.6 passengers compared with 60.4 in April.
This looks rather disappointing : the average load at MME was 58.3 passengers (based on 202 scheduled EU movements less 52 for three Ryanair sun routes).

Aberdeen looks very good. I came up with an average of 17.0 (based on 95 reported domestic movements less 28 for Newquay and 5 for Jersey).

Bulgaria is very much better at over 100% load factor. Last year there were two opening split flights with highish load factors (76 passengers via DSA and 76 via MME). This was followed by 120 (67%) on the first direct flight.

Newquay looks disappointing as the passengers seem to have been merely spread about between extra flights. Last year the average load was 20.0 passengers.

Esbjerg also looks disappointing with the steady growth having gone into reverse. The average load was 8.4 passengers compared with 11.1 in April.

[pug]

Jul 18, 2023 19:34:46 GMT kirmingtonuser said:

There were 127 Amsterdam flights after cancellations and the average load was 57.6 passengers compared with 60.4 in April.
This looked rather disappointing, but the average load at MME was only 50.3 passengers (based on 202 scheduled EU movements less 28 for three Ryanair sun routes).

Aberdeen looks very good. I came up with an average of 17.0 (based on 95 reported domestic movements less 28 for Newquay and 5 for Jersey).

Bulgaria is very much better at over 100% load factor. Last year there were two opening split flights with highish load factors (76 passengers via DSA and 76 via MME). This was followed by 120 (67%) on the first direct flight.

Newquay looks disappointing as the passengers seem to have been merely spread about between extra flights. Last year the average load was 20.0 passengers.

Esbjerg also looks disappointing with the steady growth having gone into reverse. The average load was 8.4 passengers compared with 11.1 in April.

All in all just shows where the strengths are. Need more Med destinations!

I can’t see EBJ lasting sadly, and it’s a shame to see NQY struggle to the point they have now decided to share the flight with EMA, probably making it less attractive in the process.

[mrmoose]

I agree Esjberg isn’t likely to last. I also think the writing is probably on the wall for Newquay as well, if we’re having to split loads with EMA. Nothing bookable until September though so maybe be combining it’s sold out?

Disappointed that the passengers per flight on AMS has fallen despite the increase in numbers over the month.

Your figures for abz will be correct, I very quickly added up the 6 flights per week in may (2x27) and split the 1022 over that. Either way it seems the current schedule matches long term typical loads, despite the reduction to 1 rotation per day, so hopefully Eastern are happy with that - just a low aircraft utilisation rate if it’s only doing 1 return per day some days - and maybe more if NQY/ESJ end up not being viable long term

Edit - NQY-EMA posted 415 passengers in may, so better than HUY but hardly spectacular

[Humberside]

ABZ would have been 7 flights per week - 2 each way on Tuesdays

[pug]

Jul 19, 2023 8:58:48 GMT mrmoose said:

I agree Esjberg isn’t likely to last. I also think the writing is probably on the wall for Newquay as well, if we’re having to split loads with EMA. Nothing bookable until September though so maybe be combining it’s sold out?

Disappointed that the passengers per flight on AMS has fallen despite the increase in numbers over the month.

Your figures for abz will be correct, I very quickly added up the 6 flights per week in may (2x27) and split the 1022 over that. Either way it seems the current schedule matches long term typical loads, despite the reduction to 1 rotation per day, so hopefully Eastern are happy with that - just a low aircraft utilisation rate if it’s only doing 1 return per day some days - and maybe more if NQY/ESJ end up not being viable long term

Edit - NQY-EMA posted 415 passengers in may, so better than HUY but hardly spectacular

I think that given EMA has a stated catchment area of some 8 million people, HUY doesn’t compare too badly. Rubbish numbers in commercial terms but when the two markets are compared not too bad.

Again, I think the success of TUI and Balkan would suggest the demand is more than there for those type of flights and that is where the ‘sustainable routes that last’ should be explored if they really are serious about it (and the numbers add up), as the Eastern routes are hardly going to set the world on fire, nor are they going to contribute much to the bottom line.

[kirmingtonuser]

The combined loads of HUY and EMA to Newquay total 26.4, so it seems odd that they have waited until the peak demand months before combining the flights. Presumably the reduced capacity helps to boost the yield per seat.
As far as popularity from Humberside is concerned, it is now a trade- off between an extra 45 minutes or so on the journey time versus a choice of 4 flights per week instead of two.
As the flights should now have high loads, Eastern have the opportunity to increase them further.