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Post by flyer on Sept 26, 2022 15:35:48 GMT
Yes, logically some TUI routes should come to HUY. There was a strong HUY Thomson customer base pre DSA, they have a current route and, as PUG says, its the closest airport for up to 2 million people. The closure will be no surprise to TUI even if they wished it hadn't happened. They've had over 10 weeks to plan for this scenario so there should be no reason why they can't re-shape their winter and summer 23 programmes quickly.
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Post by pug on Sept 26, 2022 15:54:29 GMT
Yes, logically some TUI routes should come to HUY. There was a strong HUY Thomson customer base pre DSA, they have a current route and, as PUG says, its the closest airport for up to 2 million people. The closure will be no surprise to TUI even if they wished it hadn't happened. They've had over 10 weeks to plan for this scenario so there should be no reason why they can't re-shape their winter and summer 23 programmes quickly. It appears that they are to increase capacity at LBA, MAN and EMA only for S23, as at Humberside routings would need to be W patterns or positioned in I suspect if more were to come it would be announced later and subject to discussion with HUY. See what happens, but a pretty sizeable market they are now looking to abandon.
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Post by mrmoose on Sept 27, 2022 19:54:12 GMT
With the loss of DSA, it will be quite a distance for those living in Hull/Scunthorpe/Grimsby to an airport other than Humberside. I think it is going to go one of 2 ways in the short term for me:
1 - Forward bookings are still below pre-covid levels, not helped by the cost of living issues, and more than likely a recession next year. TUI consolidate existing bookings onto flights from EMA/LBA/MAN with a few additional rotations to fit. This minimises risk for them at (another) potentially challenging time for the industry, and for most people, although they grumble, popping to LBA/MAN/EMA once or twice a year if your lucky, its not the be all and end all. Some DSA S23 bookings might end up transferred onto the Tuesday HUY rotation.
2 - Some passengers currently pay a premium to fly from their local airport. Now they are having to travel over to EMA/LBA/MAN anyway, they are in more directly in competition with J2 (Id say others are available, but not really in the charter world anymore!). This could lead to loss of market share for TUI. If this were to happen, I think HUY will be in a good position, as if TUI will either have to come to HUY to defend their market share in the Humber area and offer local airports as a USP - or it leaves quite a big chunk of the country without "local" departures, and therefore leaving themselves open for a competitor to sneak in to fill the gap.
Either way, I think HUY will eventually benefit from the demise of DSA, as I think even in scenario 1, eventually when the economy returns to something like normality, we should start to see scenario 2 unfold. It would be great to see TUI shift an airframe into HUY and re-employ some of the unfortunate people who are facing an uncertain future currently. What is certain, is that TUI will know where their customers travel from, and will no doubt have some in-house analysts churning this data over as we speak.
Of course - this is all conjecture on my part
Interesting times ahead, either way
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Post by pug on Sept 27, 2022 21:26:28 GMT
With the loss of DSA, it will be quite a distance for those living in Hull/Scunthorpe/Grimsby to an airport other than Humberside. I think it is going to go one of 2 ways in the short term for me: 1 - Forward bookings are still below pre-covid levels, not helped by the cost of living issues, and more than likely a recession next year. TUI consolidate existing bookings onto flights from EMA/LBA/MAN with a few additional rotations to fit. This minimises risk for them at (another) potentially challenging time for the industry, and for most people, although they grumble, popping to LBA/MAN/EMA once or twice a year if your lucky, its not the be all and end all. Some DSA S23 bookings might end up transferred onto the Tuesday HUY rotation. 2 - Some passengers currently pay a premium to fly from their local airport. Now they are having to travel over to EMA/LBA/MAN anyway, they are in more directly in competition with J2 (Id say others are available, but not really in the charter world anymore!). This could lead to loss of market share for TUI. If this were to happen, I think HUY will be in a good position, as if TUI will either have to come to HUY to defend their market share in the Humber area and offer local airports as a USP - or it leaves quite a big chunk of the country without "local" departures, and therefore leaving themselves open for a competitor to sneak in to fill the gap. Either way, I think HUY will eventually benefit from the demise of DSA, as I think even in scenario 1, eventually when the economy returns to something like normality, we should start to see scenario 2 unfold. It would be great to see TUI shift an airframe into HUY and re-employ some of the unfortunate people who are facing an uncertain future currently. What is certain, is that TUI will know where their customers travel from, and will no doubt have some in-house analysts churning this data over as we speak. Of course - this is all conjecture on my part Interesting times ahead, either way I think that’s a fair assessment. Just to add, if Humberside were to market itself again it could realistically count Doncaster as it’s core market, with Doncaster being about 40 minutes away by road Humberside is easily the closes airport. So core market minus DSA is significantly bigger that it is currently with DSA. This is how HUY was showing consistently strong growth pre DSA. The issue for Humberside now is that it’s majority owned by an offshore helicopter outfit with very little interest in airline passenger services. I feel this would need to change, and let’s face it, Doncaster Class D will be closed creating a perfect opportunity for Humberside to gain it if they wish. They are already a LARS unit with a busy helicopter operation. It really comes down to the airport owners and what they want to do with the site. Perhaps North Lincs council may wish to try influence somewhat.
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Post by flyer on Sept 28, 2022 6:51:41 GMT
HUY have indeed given an impression of ambivilance when it comes attracting passenger business. This could be because the business was just not there to be had so they have focussed on their strengths in oil, gas and wind associated activity. However, they did seem to make a lot of the new Newquay route. They have also maintained the travel agency which promotes all the passenger flights with presentations, Facebook etc in a very proactive way. (They don't seem to have to do this for the TUI flight - it must sell itself!).
Contrary signals, and in the absense of a public facing business growth/PR figure its hard to read. They have said previously they're not seeking a based low cost operator but more TUI flights would surely not threaten their business model.
Odds still must be on some new TUI routes for HUY. If they don't come about there will be an un-met need that someone will seek to fill at sometime in the future.
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Post by permit123 on Sept 29, 2022 18:02:52 GMT
Can only hope that HUY haven’t been wanting to attract more Tui action as something else is being discussed?!? Surely proven markets like Turkey could easily have been procured?
Is it too late for the likes of Jet2 for summer 2023? Or is HUY really not interested in more passenger traffic?
Wish we had more insider info on the topic!
Kind regards
permit123
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Post by pug on Sept 29, 2022 18:56:40 GMT
Can only hope that HUY haven’t been wanting to attract more Tui action as something else is being discussed?!? Surely proven markets like Turkey could easily have been procured? Is it too late for the likes of Jet2 for summer 2023? Or is HUY really not interested in more passenger traffic? Wish we had more insider info on the topic! Kind regards permit123 Think there is a general feeling about the place of ambivalence to it all. It’s not part of the owners core business, and in the 17 years since DSA opened costs of satisfying the regulators and airline safety and compliance systems themselves have increased, meaning the smaller airports can be priced out of the markets. Humberside is ticking along quite nicely and pays for itself, but it offers very little for the passenger in terms of facilities when compared to DSA. I don’t believe HUY would actively turn away business as such, but I don’t think they’re actively touting it either. Having said that, they do seem to support Humberside Airport Travel, and they do have a current agreement with TUI given the weekly PMI flights in summer, so there is scope for an increase in destination offering.. But again, I think this would come on the back of TUI approaching the airport. Correndon might be one to watch given their close ties to Hull City AFC. Can’t imagine we will ever see Jet2 at Humberside, won’t even be on their radar. The potential has now been unlocked, hopefully the current owners will realise it. If not, I hope the value of the airport increases in light of recent events and a differed airport operator looks at talking it on.
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Post by flyer on Nov 3, 2022 9:01:41 GMT
Looks like TUI have started to distribute some ex DSA capacity not distributed in September when closure was announced. MME have gained a Saturday PMI departure. Wonder if HUY will have anything ??
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Post by pug on Nov 3, 2022 9:08:39 GMT
Looks like TUI have started to distribute some ex DSA capacity not distributed in September when closure was announced. MME have gained a Saturday PMI departure. Wonder if HUY will have anything ?? Bit early for HUY to capitalise just yet I think. DSA future still not set in stone, games of brinkmanship between DMBC and Peel yesterday and seem to be coming to a head. Also not hearing positive things about the management of HUY being all that proactive with regards new business. I’m hoping to be proved wrong on that, but I’ve heard rumblings of low staff moral in certain areas of the business. Humberside Airport, sort your sh1t out!
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Post by flyer on Nov 3, 2022 9:51:03 GMT
Looks like TUI have started to distribute some ex DSA capacity not distributed in September when closure was announced. MME have gained a Saturday PMI departure. Wonder if HUY will have anything ?? Bit early for HUY to capitalise just yet I think. DSA future still not set in stone, games of brinkmanship between DMBC and Peel yesterday and seem to be coming to a head. Also not hearing positive things about the management of HUY being all that proactive with regards new business. I’m hoping to be proved wrong on that, but I’ve heard rumblings of low staff moral in certain areas of the business. Humberside Airport, sort your sh1t out! Hope HUY management read this site -I agree, let's see some action. TUI are not a risky proposition, their PMI flight has high loads and looking at next season's prices the once weekly would appear to be selling very, very well.
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Post by pug on Nov 3, 2022 10:53:33 GMT
Bit early for HUY to capitalise just yet I think. DSA future still not set in stone, games of brinkmanship between DMBC and Peel yesterday and seem to be coming to a head. Also not hearing positive things about the management of HUY being all that proactive with regards new business. I’m hoping to be proved wrong on that, but I’ve heard rumblings of low staff moral in certain areas of the business. Humberside Airport, sort your sh1t out! Hope HUY management read this site -I agree, let's see some action. TUI are not a risky proposition, their PMI flight has high loads and looking at next season's prices the once weekly would appear to be selling very, very well. I highly doubt they do, not any more anyway. Low risk yes, but I’m pretty sure if they are at all interested, then they will be waiting until there are at least white crosses on the runway at DSA before taking any risks. A continuation of operations at DSA will scupper any growth plans at HUY, and there is still a very real possibility that Peel could agree to a sale of the airport imminently. Possible barriers to Peel selling currently being an interested global investment organisation also being interested in Gateway East as part of a wider package - if Peel are prepared to offload that then DSA might have a much brighter future and the ability to heavily subsidise airlines long term. TUI would be back and with a bigger presence than ever, and I bet so would easyJet and probably KLM.
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Post by pug on Dec 28, 2022 18:07:04 GMT
HAT have an announcement tomorrow. They’ve posted on Facebook asking people to guess what it is.
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Post by mrmoose on Dec 28, 2022 20:53:44 GMT
I know what I’d like it to be (tui based 737 taking some of the lost DSA capacity) but maybe bit late for this year? roll on 10am
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Post by pug on Dec 28, 2022 21:14:43 GMT
I know what I’d like it to be (tui based 737 taking some of the lost DSA capacity) but maybe bit late for this year? roll on 10am It might not be anything like that, but their advert would suggest a new route of some sort. Could be something completely left field but my guess is TUI adding a couple of flights or destinations being the most likely given recent events. All will be revealed in the morning anyway.
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Post by mrmoose on Dec 29, 2022 10:04:05 GMT
Iceland! Certainly left field!
No dates revealed yet but must be winter 23?
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